风险还是机遇：经济政策不确定性对制造业突破式创新的影响

利用2010—2017年中国A股制造业上市公司数据,基于实物期权理论与宏观经济政策不确定性理论揭示经济政策不确定性对制造业突破式创新的影响及作用机制。由行为金融学视角出发,考察管理者过度自信对两者关系的调节作用。结果表明：经济政策不确定性对制造业突破式创新具有抑制作用,且这种抑制作用在先进制造业中更显著;管理者过度自信可削弱经济政策不确定性对制造业突破式创新的抑制作用;相较国有制造企业,非国有制造企业受经济政策不确定性的影响更显著,且管理者过度自信在非国有制造企业中的调节作用更显著。进一步分析其作用机制发现,融资约束在经济政策不确定性与制造业突破式创新关系中起部分中介作用。研究结论对制造业降低经济政策不确定性带来的风险,寻求高质量发展机遇具有一定的启示。

Risk or Opportunity:the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Breakthrough Innovation in Manufacturing Industry

Using the data of China's A-share manufacturing listed companies from 2010 to 2017,this study based on the theory of real options and the theory of macroeconomic policy uncertainty,which revealed the mechanism of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on breakthrough innovation in manufacturing.And from the perspective of behavioral finance,this paper examines the role of managers' overconfidence in regulating the relationship between the two.The results of the study show that economic policy uncertainty have a depressing effect on breakthrough innovation in manufacturing,and this inhibition is more pronounced in advanced manufacturing.Overconfidence of managers has weakened the inhibitory effect of economic policy uncertainty on manufacturing breakthroughs.Non-state-owned manufacturing enterprises are more affected by economic policy uncertainty than state-owned manufacturing enterprises,and the regulation of managers' overconfidence is more prominent in non-state-owned manufacturing enterprises.In addition,by further analyzing the impact of economic policy uncertainty on breakthrough innovation in manufacturing,it is found that financing constraints play a mediating role in economic policy uncertainty and breakthrough innovation.The conclusions of the study have certain implications for the manufacturing industry to reduce the risk of economic policy uncertainty and seek opportunities for high-quality development.