碳交易政策下区域减排潜力研究——产业结构调整与技术创新双重视角

加快产业结构调整和技术创新对于充分激发碳交易政策的区域碳减排潜力具有重要推动作用。基于2005-2017年中国内地30个省域面板数据，采用DID和PSM-DID方法评估碳交易政策对碳排放和碳排放强度的影响，在SFA模型测算技术创新效率的基础上，从产业结构高级化、合理化和技术创新效率两个方面探讨碳交易政策的作用机制，同时运用固定效应模型进行分区域验证。结果表明：碳交易政策能推动试点和非试点地区协同减排；不同经济发展水平地区，从东部、中部到西部，碳交易政策的碳减排效应逐渐减弱；产业结构调整中，产业结构高级化更多受益于碳交易政策，产业结构合理化作用较弱，技术创新效率提升效果也较为明显。基于此，从完善碳市场建设、制定差异化政策、注重产业结构调整和技术创新协同减排等方面提出相应政策建议，旨在促进区域绿色高质量发展。

Research on Regional Emission Reduction Potential under Carbon Trading Policy

Accelerating industrial restructuring and technological innovation plays an important role in giving full play to the carbon emission reduction potential of carbon trading policy regions. Based on China's 30 provinces panel data from 2005 to 2017, first DID and PSM-DID method is used to evaluate carbon trading policy impact on carbon emissions and carbon intensity, secondly the SFA model, on the basis of measuring efficiency of technological innovation, from the fundamentals, rationalization of industrial structure and technological innovation efficiency two aspects to explore the mechanism of action of carbon trading policy, at the same time, using fixed effect model verified by area. The results show that carbon trading policy plays a role in promoting cooperative emission reduction in pilot and non-pilot areas. In regions with different levels of economic development, from the east to the middle to the west, the carbon emission reduction effect of carbon trading policies gradually weakens. In the adjustment of industrial structure, the higher level of industrial structure benefits more from the carbon trading policy. The rationalization effect of industrial structure is weak, and the improvement effect of technological innovation efficiency is also obvious. Based on this, relevant policy Suggestions are put forward from the aspects of improving the construction of carbon market, formulating differentiated policies, paying attention to the adjustment of industrial structure and collaborative emission reduction through technological innovation, so as to promote regional green and high-quality development.