中国优势产业组合的动态演化机制研究——基于TERGM的实证分析

基于产品空间理论，利用1962―2015年128个国家和地区783个产业出口贸易数据，借助最新发展的时间指数随机图模型（TERGM），深度剖析中国优势产业组合的动态演化机制。研究发现，中国优势产业组合存在显著的中心―边缘宏观网络结构特征，且由星型和三角形两种结构依赖所驱动，分别意味着轴式发展路径和链式发展路径。进一步地，动态ERGM研究结果表明，我国实施的渐进式发展战略存在时间依赖，且呈现出较强的“自稳定性”。结论表明，TERGM能够有效解决产品空间中的结构依赖和时间依赖问题，是系统描述和检验网络演化的有力分析工具，并且透过微观网络构局揭示中国优势产业组合的动态演化机制，为更好地分析产业结构的网络互赖性，实现产业转型升级提供指导。

The Mechanism Research on Dynamic Evolution of China's Advantageous Industry Portfolio

Based on product space theory,this paper using the export data of 783 industries in 128 countries or areas from 1962 to 2015 applies the latest Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models (TERGM) to deeply dissect the dynamic evolution mechanisms of China's advantageous industry portfolio.Research results show that it demonstrates a significant macro core-periphery network structure in China's advantageous industry portfolio,the micro mechanisms behind which are star-shaped and agglomerated configurations,meaning anchoring and chain development path respectively.Furthermore,it shows incremental development strategy,that is,China's initial industrial structure impacts and shapes advantageous industry portfolio in future,suggesting strong self-stability.The research suggests that TERGM can effectively deal with structural dependence and time dependence,being a social network analysis tool that systematically describes and tests network evolution,and also reveals the process and formation of dynamic evolution about China's advantageous industry portfolio through micro network configurations.This paper provides guidance for better understanding the network interdependence of industrial structure,realizing industrial transformation and upgrading,and grasping the opportunities of economic globalization.