新开放条件下外资、外贸与长三角区域经济增长关系研究

本文以新开放条件为背景,采用协整理论、脉冲响应函数和Granger因果检验方法就外资、外贸与长三角区域经济增长关系进行了实证分析,结果表明:(1)无论是短期,还是长期,FDI和出口都推动了经济增长,而进口只在短期内促进了经济增长,长期促进作用并不显现。(2)在短期内,FDI的经济增长效应和贸易效应存在较大的差异,前者明显大于后者。(3)FDI、出口与经济增长存在长期双向因果关系,进口只是经济增长的短期单向原因。文章最后提出相应的对策建议。

A Study on the Relationship Among FDI, Foreign Trade, Economic Growth in Yangtse Delta Area under the New Open Situation

Based on the new open situation, this paper uses cointegration theory, impulse response function and Granger causality test approach to study the relationship among FDI, foreign trade and economic growth in Yangtse Delta Area. The results show that:(1)whether in the long run or in the short run, FDI and export push economic growth. Although import pushes economic growth in the short run, yet the push effect of import on economic growth doesn’t emerge in the long run.(2)There exists distinct difference between the effect of FDI and foreign trade on growth economic, and the push effect of FDI on growth economic is greater than the effect of FDI on foreign trade.(3)There exists bi-directional Granger causality between FDI and export both in the long and the short run, and import mono-directionally causes economic growth in the short run. At last, some relevant proposals are put forward.