我国房地产资产升值和资产通胀的外部性--汇率、利率偏低是资产通胀的根源

由于人民币汇率问题,我国的货物和资产都显得相对廉价。外部世界不仅从我国大量进口可移动的贸易品,还通过直接投资等方式大量“进口”中国的土地和房地产商品,这在一定程度上拉动了房地产商品的价格上涨。所以,研究我国的房地产问题,必须从对外贸易角度来分析。实际上我国这几年来所有的经济问题都可以归纳到货币政策和汇率问题。房价上涨的部分原因在于外部输入的货币量过多,人民币汇率和利率偏低,大量资金涌入房地产市场保值升值,使这一稀缺资源充满了投机性。

Appreciation of Property Assets and the Externalities of Capital Inflation: On Interest Rate and Low Interest Rate

Owing to the lower exchange rate of the RMB, the goods and real estate assets in China are relatively cheap. This caused a big buying spree by the foreigners and huge money coming into China. During these years, foreigners not only import a lot of goods from China, but also invest and buy a lot in China. These buying not only include productive raw materials, but also the real estates. The more investments coming into China, the more requirements for land, housing, workshop and commercial buildings. That caused the house price rising. Meanwhilef-the domestic hot money and hot money abroad poured into the real estate for speculation purposes. All those factors raised the housing price and even make bubbles in the real estate market. At last, the high price let more and more consumer leaving the housing market. It gives a big pressure on the urban life and led to overheating of the economy.