效率提高会吞噬就业吗？旅游产业升级的就业效应研究

文章构建了旅游产业升级的就业效应测算模型，将旅游产业升级的就业效应分解为就业创造和就业破坏两个方面，并从总量、结构以及行业异质性三个角度对2000-2014年中国旅游产业升级的就业创造和破坏机制进行了研究。结果表明：(1)中国旅游产业升级总体上具有积极的就业增长效应，但由于旅游产业功能升级不足，旅游产业升级的就业创造效应主要来源于规模扩张和结构变动。(2)各行业就业增长与其效率滞后性基本呈现为正相关的关系，说明在旅游业内部存在鲍莫尔成本病问题。(3)住宿业就业创造与旅游总产出增长之间出现了此消彼长的两难困境。未来中国旅游产业升级应注重与文化产业融合，推进旅游向审美化、品质化、体验化方向发展。

Employment Generating Effects During Tourism Industrial Upgrading Process in China

This paper studies the employment generating effects during tourism industrial upgrading process in China from 2000 to 2014. An econometric model is built up to measure respectively the employment generating and destruction effects of different tourism sectors during this upgrading process. The results show that: (1) The total employment generating effects of China’s tourism industry during the period studied is positive and mainly comes from the scale expanding effects and structural changing effects, instead of functional upgrading effect. (2) There lies the tradeoff between productivity gains and job growth, indicating the existence of Baumol’s cost disease in the tourism industry. (3) Due to the rocketing price of real estate assets, a dilemma emerges between the employment creation of the accommodation sector and the growth of the total output of tourism. Results suggest that the Chinese tourism industrial upgrading should go toward the integration of quality and comprehensive optimization of landscape aesthetics and experiencing design.