农户耕地适度规模经营意愿影响因素研究——基于兰州市榆中、永登、皋兰3县638户种植户的调查

目的 在当前我国全面实施乡村振兴战略的大背景下，推行适度规模经营是增加农户农业收入的必要举措，深入剖析农户耕地适度规模经营意愿及影响因素，对于推进农业适度规模经营、促进农业高质量发展具有重要的意义。方法 文章以兰州市榆中、永登、皋兰3县种植户为调研对象，基于638户种植户的调查数据，从农户家庭特征、农户经济特征、耕地经营特征三方面拟选14个自变量，采用二元Logistic回归模型，根据自变量的sig.和exp（B）值判别影响3县农户适度规模经营意愿的因素及其影响程度。结果 （1）研究区大多数被调查户（榆中75.00%、永登68.18%、皋兰72.82%）都愿意适度规模经营；（2）农业收入贡献、耕地面积、土壤质量、道路宽度对3县农户适度规模经营意愿有显著正向影响，有效劳动力数量、非农业收入比重、耕地块数对3县农户适度规模经营意愿有显著负向影响，学历结构对榆中县农户适度规模经营意愿有显著负向影响，农业收入对榆中和皋兰2县农户适度规模经意愿有显著正向影响。家庭有效劳动力数量、非农业收入比重、农业收入贡献、耕地面积、土壤质量、道路宽度对各县农户适度规模经营意愿具有相对较大的影响。结论 完善农村“留才”“引才”机制，吸引高学历人才返乡从事规模化经营；促进土地流转；加快推进高标准农田建设和土地整治项目实施；探索农业适度规模经营多元化融合发展新业态，打造优势特色产业和富民产业。

STUDY ON THE INFLUENCING FACTORS OF FARMERS'' WILLINGNESS TO MODERATE SCALE OPERATION OF CULTIVATED LAND——BASED ON A SURVEY OF 638 GROWERS IN YUZHONG, YONGDENG AND GAOLAN COUNTIES OF LANZHOU CITY

Under the background of China''s comprehensive implementation of rural revitalization strategy, the implementation of moderate scale operation is a necessary measure to increase the agricultural income of farmers. In-depth analysis of farmers'' willingness to operate cultivated land on a moderate scale and its influencing factors is of great significance for promoting the moderate scale operation of agriculture and promoting the high-quality development of agriculture. Taking the growers in Yuzhong, Yongdeng and Gaolan counties of Lanzhou city as the research objects, the factors affecting the willingness of farmers to operate the moderate scale of cultivated land were explored. Based on the survey data of 638 growers，14 independent variables were selected from three aspects: household characteristics, economic characteristics and cultivated land management characteristics, and a binary logistic regression model was used to identify the factors affecting the willingness of farmers in the three counties to operate on a moderate scale and their influence degree according to the Sig. and Exp(B) values of the independent variables. The results showed that: (1) Most of the surveyed households in the study area (75.00% in Yuzhong, 68.18% in Yongdeng and 72.82% in Gaolan) were willing to operate on a moderate scale. (2) The contribution of agricultural income, the cultivated land area, the soil quality and the road width had significant positive impacts on the willingness of farmers in the three counties to operate on a moderate scale. The number of effective labor, the proportion of non-agricultural income and the number of cultivated land plots had significant negative impacts on the willingness of farmers in the three counties to operate on a moderate scale. The educational structure had a significant negative impact on the willingness of farmers in Yuzhong county to operate on a moderate scale. And the agricultural income had a significant positive impact on the willingness of farmers to operate on a moderate scale in Yuzhong and Gaolan counties. In summary, this research draws the following conclusions. The number of effective labor, the proportion of non-agricultural income, the contribution of agricultural income, the cultivated land area, the soil quality and the road width have relatively large effects on the willingness of farmers in each county to operate on a moderate scale. The following suggestions are put forward. It should improve the mechanism of ‘retaining talents’ and ‘attracting talents’ in rural areas, so as to attract highly educated talents to return to their hometowns to engage in large-scale operations, and promote the land circulation. Meanwhile, it also should accelerate the implementation of high-standard farmland construction and land consolidation projects, explore new forms of diversified and integrated development of moderate-scale agricultural operations, and create advantageous characteristic industries and industries that enrich the people.