我国出口贸易与经济增长的实证研究

本文运用线性回归、格兰杰因果关系检验与方差分解技术等计量经济学分析方法,对我国出口贸易和经济增长进行了实证研究,由此得出结论,出口贸易与经济增长之间存在正相关关系,出口的增加是促进经济增长的重要原因;出口贸易在推动经济增长方面存在一定的时滞,而消费的时滞与出口相比较长,投资的时滞与出口相比则较短。

Empirical Study on China's Export Trade and Economic Growth

This paper, through several econometric analysis methods such as linear regression, Granger Causality Test as well as covariance decomposition technology etc., gives an empirical study on the relationships between China's export and economic growth. And the conclusions are as follows: there exists positive correlation between China's export and economic growth, but it can't satisfy the Export-led Growth hypothesis; the increase in export is the important reason of economic growth; there exists certain time-lag in export trade when promoting economic growth, and the consumption time-lag is longer, investment time-lag is shorter compared with export. Based on the above conclusions, it gives the homologous policy suggestions.