利率、魏克赛尔累积过程与资产价格

通货膨胀目标制的理论基础直接来源于魏克赛尔的累积过程理论。央行的利率政策不但会影响一般价格的上涨,而且会导致资产价格出现泡沫。现时的房产价格与未来的产出和通货膨胀关系密切,应该在CPI中给予一定的权重。低利率、低通胀和资产价格膨胀共存并不意味着累积过程理论失效,而是因为其反馈机制和通胀度量出现了问题。

Interest Rates, Knut Wicksell's Cumulative Process and Asset Prices

The theoretical foundation of inflation targeting is come from Knut Wicksell's cumulative process theory.Interest rate policy of central bank not only causes an increase in the price level,but also leads to asset prices bubbles.Current housing price has strong links to subsequent output and inflation,and should be given a proper weight in CPI measurement.The coexistence of low interest rate,low inflation rate and asset prices inflation does not imply the cumulative process theory losing its effectiveness,bu...