碳交易体系之行业选择机制的经验借鉴与案例分析——以广东为例

确定碳交易体系的覆盖范围是国家或地区碳交易体系的基础工作。在对欧盟、德国和日本的相关研究进行文献分析后发现,有一些共同的判定标准。根据我国国情,对这些选择标准进行了适用性分析,并综合地区的碳排放结构、经济规划、区域发展平衡等因素,设计了由系统层、模块层、要素层和基础层四层共26个指标构成的"区域碳交易体系行业入选度"指标体系,采用德尔菲和模糊隶属度函数的方法计算得到每个指标的权重,建立了选择碳交易体系覆盖范围的评价模型。以广东省为例,使用能源消费数据对评价模型进行模拟操作,结果显示:石化、电力和水泥行业是广东省建立碳交易体系时应该首先被选入的行业。

How to Define the Scope of China Regional CO2 ETS Coverage:Experience and Case Study:Taking Guangdong Province as Example

Defining the emission trade scope is an important part of an efficient emission trade system.Literature review shows that three general factors can be used to assess whether a sector would be included in the system: large CO2 emission,less carbon leakage and lower administrative cost.In China,more factors should be considered,such as carbon emission and industrial structure,economic development planning,regional development balance,etc..This paper proposes 26 indicators for assessing the inclusion of sectors in emission trading system,which includes four levels: top layer,module layer,factor layer and operation layer.The tools of Delphi method and Fuzzy Membership Function Model are applied to quantify the weight of each indicator for the assessment.To test the model proposed by this paper,the authors use the energy consumption data from Guangdong province to operate this model,showing that electricity industry,petrifaction industry and cement industry are in the first order to be included in Guangdong’s carbon emission trade system.