基于仿真方法的新型装备备件消耗预测研究

针对新型装备备件消耗历史数据较少，提出用仿真方法预测新型装备备件消耗。在分析影响装备备件消耗因素的基础上，做出一系列假设，用系统仿真的方法模拟装备的使用、故障和维修，以此预测备件的消耗。实例验证了用系统仿真方法预测新型装备备件消耗，其预测精度要高于传统预测方法。

Consumption Forecast of New Type Equipment Maintenance Material Based on Simulation Method

To solve the problem of consumption forecast of new type equipment maintenance material for lacking of historical data, this paper put forward consumption forecast of new type equipment maintenance material based on simulation method. Based on the analysis of factors which influence equipment maintenance material consumption, making a series of assumptions, simulate the use, failure and maintenance of equipment. Example shows that simulation method is accuracy than conventional forecasting methods to predict the consumption of new type equipment maintenance material.