| 基于FPT的入境旅游市场季节风险规避研究——以台湾客源为例 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 罗治得,章锦河,熊发礼.基于FPT的入境旅游市场季节风险规避研究——以台湾客源为例[J].桂林旅游高等专科学校学报,2009(3):439-445. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 罗治得 章锦河 熊发礼 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院;南京农业大学经济管理学院;金陵科技学院商学院; |
| |
| 摘 要： | 季节性是旅游业最典型的特征之一，也是旅游业常面临的风险问题，但有关如何规避旅游季节风险的研究比较少。基于1998—2007年中国入境旅游台湾客源市场客流月度分布数据，引入被广泛应用于证券市场的证券组合理论（Financial portfolio theory，简称FPT），构建旅游市场季节风险规避模型，运用季节分布曲线、SRI指数、SRCV系数对台湾市场的季节风险进行实证分析，并依据规避模型计算出一系列台湾市场季节风险最低时的有效月度市场组合，绘出规避台湾市场季节风险的有效边界，为规避其季节风险问题提供一种定量的分析方法，为制订针对台湾客源市场的入境旅游战略规划提供科学的决策依据，也为今后类似问题的研究提供分析方法的借鉴，指导中国旅游业可持续发展。
|
| 关 键 词： | 入境旅游 证券组合理论 季节性 风险规避 台湾地区 |
Study of Inbound Tourism Market for Avoiding Seasonal Risk Based on FPT -- A Case of Taiwan Tourist Market |
| |
| LUO Zhi-de,ZHANG Jin-he,XIONG Fa-li.Study of Inbound Tourism Market for Avoiding Seasonal Risk Based on FPT -- A Case of Taiwan Tourist Market[J].Journal of Guilin Institute of Tourism,2009(3):439-445. |
| |
| Authors: | LUO Zhi-de ZHANG Jin-he XIONG Fa-li |
| |
| Institution: | 1.College of Territorial Resources and Tourism;Anhui Normal University;Wuhu 241003;China;2.College of Economics & Management;Nanjing Agricultural University;Nanjing 210095;3.School of business;Jinling Institute of Technology;Nanjing 211169;China |
| |
| Abstract: | Seasonality is one of the most representative attributes of tourism industry and it is often seen as a major risk problem that this industry has to face,but fewer studies have been made to avoid the seasonal risk of tourism.The paper,based on the data of monthly distribution of Taiwan tourist flows from 1998~2007,one of Chinese inbound tourism source markets,introduces the widely used financial portfolio theory in stock market,constructs a tourist market seasonal risk aversion model,applies seasonal distrib... |
| |
| Keywords: | inbound tourism financial portfolio theory seasonality risk aversion Taiwan |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
