基于协整和脉冲响应的中国煤炭贸易量变化对其价格影响研究

煤炭价格的变化受整体供求平衡以及各种政策的影响而发生波动,但是有学者认为中国煤炭的贸易状况也会对其价格产生影响,本文收集了2000年至2009年煤炭进口和出口的数额以及2000年至2009年煤炭的价格,采用协整检验和脉冲响应方法对其进行分析,得出结论如下:第一,煤炭价格与煤炭进出口额之间存在长期均衡关系,但煤炭价格对煤炭进出口额的带动作用较强,而煤炭进出口额对煤炭价格的促进作用则较弱。第二,煤炭出口额在煤炭价格冲击下的响应效应有5年的滞后期,并且非常持久。第三,煤炭进口额和出口额之间长期并不存在关联,但是在短期内存在正相关性,据此分析结果,本文提出了对应的政策建议。

Impact of Coal Trade Volume on Coal Prices Based on Cointegration and Pulse-Response

Coal price fluctuations are reflected by factors with supply and demand and policies.Some scholars consider that coal price is also affected by coal imports and exports.This paper analyzes coal price with cointegration and pulse-response and data through 2000-2009.We conclude that long term equilibrium between coal price and trade value exists,that the response time lag of coal exports to price is 5 years with sustainable effect,and that no long term correlation between coal imports and exports is found while short term positive one exists.Recommendations are given according to research findings.