地理距离与城市间溢出效应——基于空间面板模型的经验研究

本文基于中国268个城市2003-2008年的数据,采用空间面板模型考察了地理距离因素对城市间溢出效应的影响。结果表明:城市间溢出效应随距离的增加呈现先升后降的倒U形曲线过程,最优的溢出距离出现在50公里左右;城市间的外溢效应在180公里范围内表现得最为显著,200公里以外明显减弱。这一结论为我国当前经济圈域的划分提供了依据。研究还证实了科技投入、公共服务水平、金融条件和产业结构的优化是推动中国城市体系演变的关键因素。

Geographical Distance and Urban Spillover Effects: A Spatial Panel-Data Study

Based on urban panel data through 2003-2008,we explore the relationship between geographic distance and the urban spillover effects.Empirical evidence shows that the strength of urban spillover effects does not strictly decay over distance,but exhibit an inverted U-shaped curve in which the turning point is 50 km.We also find that spillovers between cities are the strongest within 180 km and decline rapidly above 200 km,quite limited in geographic scope.Additional results show that investment in science and technology,industrial structure adjustment,and the level of financial and public services are important for the evolution of city size distribution.