增值税“扩围”对城镇居民收入分配影响分析

通过微观模拟方法,就1995—2010年增值税"扩围"对城镇居民收入分配格局的影响进行模拟测算。结果显示:就整体影响而言,增值税"扩围"对收入分配的逆向调节有所减弱;就增值税和营业税各自的累进性而言,对低收入者的负面影响均较大,且消费项目间调节的差异较为明显。在继续实行增值税"扩围"的过程中,需要考虑消费项目对居民收入分配所可能产生的潜在影响,非对称地调整行业间税负。

On Simulation of VAT's Expanding on Urban Residents' Income Distribution Effects

The paper calculates the impacts of value added tax "expanding" on urban income distribution pattern from 1995 to 2010 with microscopic simulation method.Study shows that value added tax "expanding" of income distribution has a positive adjustment when the whole effect is concerned.Value added tax's and business tax's progressivity have larger negative effect on the low-income earners,and the adjustment of the difference between consumption item is obvious.The implementation of value added tax enlargement need consider potential impact of consumption on resident income distribution and asymmetrically adjust tax burden between industries.