中国农村居民收入增长与波动的福利分析——基于异质居民户的数值模拟

文章在Lucas(1987)模型中引入习惯形成,并将其拓展成含收入变量的形式,在此基础上采用中国农村五等份收入户的收入数据进行数值模拟。结果显示:收入增长比收入平稳更为重要。当风险偏好不变时,两类福利成本的比值随习惯强度变化的轨迹呈倒U型;习惯形成不变时,两类福利成本的比值随着相对风险规避系数的增大而递减。在不考虑收入波动的福利成本时,促进收入增长能为低收入户带来相对较多的经济福利;不考虑收入增长的福利效应时,收入波动加剧会给低收入户带来相对较多的福利成本。因此,当务之急是增加农民收入,同时也应该兼顾收入波动给低收入群体造成的消极影响。

Welfare Cost Analysis on Income Growth and Its Fluctuation in Rural China-From the Perspective of Rural Households by Income Quintile

Using data from different income groups, this paper extends the model of Lucas （1987） with habit formation and household income for the numerical simulation.The results suggest that a growing income is more important than a smoothing income, and this relative importance grows with a higher income level. There is an inverse U relationship between the ratio of two kinds of welfare costs and the sensitivity of habit formation when relative risk aversion coefficient is constant while the ratio of two kinds of welfare costs with the increase of relative risk aversion coefficient declines when the sensitivity of habit formation is constant. Furthermore, compared to other income groups, both to promote income growth and to smooth in-come can bring more welfare for low income group. Therefore the policymakers should not ignore rural income fluctuations affecting the poor while attaching importance to rural income growth.