Club Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions

We examine convergence in carbon dioxide emissions among 128 countries for the period 1960–2003 by means of a new methodology introduced by Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007a). Contrary to previous studies, our approach allows us to examine for evidence of club convergence, i.e. identify groups of countries that converge to different equilibria. Our results suggest convergence in per capita CO₂ emissions among all the countries under scrutiny in the early years of our sample. However, there seem to be two separate convergence clubs in the recent era that converge to different steady states. Interestingly, we also find evidence of transitioning between the two convergence clubs suggesting either a slow convergence between the two clubs or a tendency for some countries to move from one convergence club to the other.