长三角房价变化的生态共生性研究——基于上海、杭州和南京的实证

本文首先对上海、杭州和南京的房屋销售价格的动态一致性进行了验证;接着分析了这三座城市房屋销售价格具有动态一致性的现实基础,结果表明:这三座城市的房屋销售价格在自身的累积效应和房价溢出效应作用下表现出很强的联动效应,任一城市可以依据其余两座城市房价的变动和贡献度来预估自己的房价走势。本文的结论也说明了区域内不同城市的房价变动具有生态共生性,有很强的现实意义。

Ecological Symbiosis of Changes of Housing Sales Price in Yangtze River Delta: an Empirical Study

Beginning with an empirical study on housing sales prices for three typical cities: Shanghai,Hangzhou and Nanjing in Yangtze River Delta.The paper analyzes the realistic foundation of the consistency of their housing sales prices.The result indicates that "accumulation effect"and"overflow effect"lead to the consistency of price in those cities,and any city could predict its own price trend based on price fluctuations and contribution degrees of the other two cities.It is concluded that housing sales price among different cities in the region has ecological symbiosis,which is of great practical significance.