An approximate long-memory range-based approach for value at risk estimation |
| |
Authors: | Xiaochun Meng James W. Taylor |
| |
Affiliation: | Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, United Kingdom |
| |
Abstract: | This paper proposes new approximate long-memory VaR models that incorporate intra-day price ranges. These models use lagged intra-day range with the feature of considering different range components calculated over different time horizons. We also investigate the impact of the market overnight return on the VaR forecasts, which has not yet been considered with the range in VaR estimation. Model estimation is performed using linear quantile regression. An empirical analysis is conducted on 18 market indices. In spite of the simplicity of the proposed methods, the empirical results show that they successfully capture the main features of the financial returns and are competitive with established benchmark methods. The empirical results also show that several of the proposed range-based VaR models, utilizing both the intra-day range and the overnight returns, are able to outperform GARCH-based methods and CAViaR models. |
| |
Keywords: | Value at risk CAViaR Realized volatility Intra-day range Quantile regression |
本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录! |