中国耕地价格的测度、格局及影响因素

研究目的：揭示中国当前县域耕地价格格局及影响因素，保障国家粮食安全、乡村振兴等重大战略顺利推进。研究方法：收益还原法与经济计量模型。研究结果：（1）中国县域耕地价格整体上呈现出东高西低的阶梯型分布态势，且价格空间关联性与集聚特征显著；（2）县域层面，耕地质量条件是决定中国耕地价格的主导因素，经济环境对中国耕地价格的影响程度次之，外部投入与增值预期对耕地价格影响较小；（3）耕地质量等别间，耕地质量对价格影响强度随耕地等别优化而逐级减弱，经济环境对价格作用强度则随质量等别优化为逐级增强。研究结论：耕地质量条件主导耕地价格水平，但经济环境对耕地价格具有溢价效应。未来，需要完善政策工具以保障耕地生产要素属性，防范农地过度资本化。

Research on Measurement, Pattern and Influencing Factors of Farmland Price in China

The purposes of this study are to reveal the current farmland price pattern and influencing factors in China, and to ensure the smooth implementation of major strategies such as national food security and rural revitalization. The research methods mainly used are earnings reduction and econometric models. The results show that: 1) farmland price of the counties in China as a whole presents a ladder-type distribution trend of high east and low west, and the price spatial correlation and agglomeration characteristics are significant. 2) The farmland quality is the dominant factor that determines the spatial differentiation of farmland price in China. The degree of the impact of the economic environment on the spatial differentiation of farmland price in China is the second, and the external inputs and expected returns have a weaker effect on the differentiation of farmland prices. 3) Among the units of farmland, the degree of the impact of farmland quality and economic environment on price varies with the farmland quality. The intensity of the effect of farmland quality on the price gradually weakens with the optimization of quality level, and the intensity of economic environment on the price gradually increases with the optimization of the quality level. In conclusion, the farmland quality dominates the price level of farmland, but the economic environment has a premium effect on farmland price. In the future, it is necessary to improve policy tools to ensure the attributes of farmland production factors and prevent excessive capitalization of farmland.