进出口贸易增长、人民币汇率波动与贸易均衡汇率决定——基于两国模型的理论与政策分析

非市场化商品和劳务、技术进步与人口增长速度差异等因素的存在,使得准确计算人民币均衡汇率面临诸多困难;只有当两国的技术进步增长率与人口增长率之和相等且两国的贸易量为零增长速度时,才会出现零波动幅度的贸易均衡汇率;在两国或者多国构成的国际经济体系中,在一定条件下可能存在贸易汇率波动均衡,但会表现出不同的特征;应根据我国贸易汇率波动均衡特征制订和实施更具灵活性和弹性的贸易政策和汇率政策.

International Trade Growth , RMB Fluctuation and Trade Exchange Rate Equilibrium of China in Transition Period: A Two-country Model and Policies Analysis

Based on economic transition of China and literatures on foreign exchange rate of RMB,this paper induces a two-country theory model to analyzes RMB fluctuation and equilibrium for export and import in China,and proposes some countermeasures to deal with some problems of RMB reform.This paper points out:(1) it is very difficult to calculate RMB value correctly because of non-market goods and serves in transition economy;(2)equilibrium of international trade would emerge only in rigid conditions;(3) foreign exchange rate equilibrium exhibits different characteristic in international economy;(4) flexible policies for trade and foreign exchange rate should be suitable for China.