Estimating cigarette-tax revenue

This paper presents a cigarette-tax revenue model which predicts potential tax revenues. The model is unique in that revenues are estimated in a two-stage process which is invariant to the type of state sales/excise tax regime. The model also controls for cross-state spillover effects. The empirical model was estimated using data from Alabama and surrounding states from 1955 to 1990. The results suggest the demand for cigarettes in Alabama is relatively inelastic; spillover effects are found but are small in scale; and additional revenue potentials can be realized by changes in the tax regime.