人民币升值预期的经济效应

在量化界定人民币升值预期的基础上，通过对有关数据的Granger因果检验和相关分析发现，人民币升值预期对中国经济的不利影响主要体现在吸引国际投机性资本流入、加速外汇储备累积、加剧流动性过剩及其冲销压力、推动股价上涨等金融方面，对一般商品、劳务价格及房地产价格没有影响，对经济增长有一定的间接促进作用，且在一定程度上抑制贸易顺差增长，从而缓解内外经济失衡。

On the Economic Effects of RMB Appreciation Expectation

This paper empirically estimates the expectation of RMB appreciation while analyzing its economic effects by using Granger Causality Test and Correlations Analysis based on the related monthly data. It shows that the negative impacts is mainly to finance, such as attracting international speculative capital inflows; accelerating the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves; increasing excess liquidity and the pressure of sterilization; pro- pelling stock price and so on. It does not affect the price of general commodities and real estate but promote economic growth indirectly. To some extent, it also inhibits the growth of trade surplus which helps to ease ＂the internal and external disequilibrium.