中国经济增长的产业逻辑及当前阶段的战略选择——基于长期消费需求的视角

从长期消费需求的视角来看,居民消费需求的释放遵循一定的次序,从基本的“吃穿住行”到较高层级的精神文化产品,是逐级释放的,这要求产业的生产活动也遵循同样的次序。中国40多年经济增长的基本逻辑在于产业的生产活动始终回应了居民的基本消费需求。在20世纪80年代到90年代中期,主要解决居民的温饱问题,以农业、日用化工及轻纺工业等产业为主导;2000年之后,主要解决居民的住行问题,以房地产、汽车、高速公路、高铁等产业为主导。从这一产业逻辑来看,中等收入陷阱实际上是“吃穿住行”等基本消费需求满足之后,居民的消费层级上升,产业需要进行相应的转型升级,但更高一级的消费需求出现了与以往完全不同的特点,导致产业生产活动无法有效跟进的结果。当前,我国居民更高一级的消费需求开始出现,产业处于转型升级的关键期,存在跌入中等收入陷阱的风险,因此,在产业战略上要关注更高一级消费需求的发展趋势,同时要积极寻找外部需求,且在这一过程中企业的治理结构也要做出相应的改变。

The Industrial Logic of China's Economic Growth and the Strategic Choice of the Current Stage:From the Perspective of Long-term Consumption Demand

From the perspective of long-term consumption demand,th e release of residents'consumption demand follows a certain order,from the"food,clothing,housing and transportation"to the cultural products,which requires the industrial production to follow the same order.The basic logic of China's economic growth in the past 40 years is that the industrial production always responded to the basic consumption demand of the residents.From the 1980s to the mid-1990s,it mainly solved the problem of food and clothing,which dominated by agriculture,household chemical industry and textile industry;after 2000,it mainly solved the problem of housing and transportation,which dominated by real estate,automobile,motorways,high-speed rail and other related industries.From this point of industrial logic,when the basic consumption demand such as"food,clothing,housing and transportation"is satisfied,the residents'consumption level goes up,and the industrial structure needs upgrading correspondingly.However,the advanced consumption demand appears completely different characteristics from the past,which results in the failure of industrial structure upgrading,therefore the middle-income trap appears.At present,the higher level of consumption demand in China begins to appear,and it is the critical period for the industry to transform and upgrade,so there is a risk of falling into the middle-income trap.Therefore,we should pay attention to the development trend of the advanced consumption demand,and actively look for external demand.In this process,the enterprise management structure should also make corresponding changes.