中国民航业25年发展与巨变对旅游业影响的动态分析

利用1985-2010年的时间序列数据，采用协整分析法、格兰杰因果法对民航客运与旅游发展的关系进行了动态检验，并进一步采用脉冲响应函数和方差分解法探讨了民航客运变化对旅游发展的冲击效应及其重要性。结果发现：①协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验表明，航空客运与旅游之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。航空客运是旅游业增长的原因，即航空运输业发展对旅游客流量的增长具有显著的推着作用。②冲击效应分析表明，航空客运的发展变化对旅游业冲击作用的持久性长。入境旅游对国际航线冲击的反应幅度较大，而国内旅游对国内航线里程冲击反应幅度较大，表明入境旅游客流量对国际航线敏感，国内旅游客流量对国内航线里程较敏感。③方差分析表明，国际航空客运量冲击对入境旅游波动的贡献最大且呈不断递增趋势。国内航线里程对国内旅游增长贡献率最大。与入境旅游相比，航空客运对国内旅游影响更大且稳定。本研究为认识民航客运与旅游关系提供了重要依据。

Dynamic Analysis on Impact of the Aviation Industry Development and Change on the Tourism in 25 Years

The purpose of this paper is to explore the dynamic relationship between tourism and aviation industry. By using the Co-integration Test and Granger Causality Test Method, the dynamic interaction between tourism and aviation industry is systematically analyzed during the period of 1985-2010 in China. Furthermore, the impulse responses as well as the significance of aviation industry and tourism are investigated by the Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition Model. The results show that there is a stable equilibrium relation between tourism and aviation industry in the long-run. In addition, the aviation industry is one of the reasons for the tourism growth and also it can promote the development of the tourism significantly. Impulse response function indicates that aviation industry has effect on tourism significantly and inbound tourism has great response to international air route, domestic tourism has huge response to air route mileage. Variance decomposition indicates that international aviation passenger capacity contributes to the growth of the inbound tourism enormously and air route mileage contributes to the growth of domestic tourism hugely. Moreover, aviation industry plays a more important role to the growth of domestic tourism than inbound tourism. This study provides a reference for the relation between tourism and air transportation network development.