信息技术类上市公司财务危机预警实证研究

以沪、深A股2008-2012年28家信息技术类上市公司为研究样本,利用ST公司财务危机前3年的数据初步选用21个初始预警变量;从样本的信息显著性和重复性出发,采用因子分析法等方法筛选基础预警指标,最终确定净资产增长率、净利润增长率、技术人员比率等8个指标作为模型初始变量;接着运用Logistic回归分析构建财务危机预警模型。该模型仅针对信息技术类上市公司,对公司发生财务危机前的财务状况的拟合度较高,具有较强的适用性与指导性。

Empirical Study on Financial Crisis Prediction in Listed IT Companies

Taking 28 IT companies listed on A stock of Shanghai and Shenzhen exchange from 2008 to 2012 as samples, 21 warning variables ini- tially based on the ST companies＇ data of 3 years before financial crisis were selected. From the point of view of information significance and repeat- ability of sample data , normality test, significance tests, and factor analysis were adopted to screen for warning indexes. Ultimately, growth rate of net assets,earnings per share,operating cash to total debt ratio,sales cash ratio,total assets turnover,growth rate of net profit,R ~ D invest- ment intensity,and technical personnel ratio were selected as model＇s initial variables. Then the model of financial crisis prediction was constructed which included the four indicators of earnings per share,operating cash to total debt ratio, sales cash ratio ,and R＆D investment intensity using Logistic regression. The study showed that the model fit well on IT companies and had a strong applicability.