Seasonal and stochastic effects in commodity forward curves |
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Authors: | Svetlana Borovkova Helyette Geman |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Finance, Faculty of Economics, Free University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;(2) Birkbeck, University of London, London, UK;(3) ESSEC Business School, Cergy-Pontoise Cedex, France |
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Abstract: | In this paper we develop a new model for the dynamics of forward curves of commodities exhibiting seasonalities, such as natural
gas, electricity or agricultural commodities. In the existing literature on the subject, the first state variable in multi-factor
models is the commodity price, which combines seasonal and stochastic features and may be unobservable. We propose to use
instead the average forward price, which is devoid of seasonality and conveys a more robust representation of the current
forward curve level. The second factor in the model is a quantity analogous to the stochastic convenience yield, which accounts
for the random changes in the forward curve shape. The well-known cost-of-carry relationship is significantly improved by
introducing a deterministic seasonal premium within the convenience yield. We develop model estimation procedures and apply
them to a number of energy markets. |
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Keywords: | Commodity futures Forward curve seasonality Energy markets |
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