| 近50年湖南省耕地资源变化及驱动力研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱智勋,熊鹰.近50年湖南省耕地资源变化及驱动力研究[J].国土资源科技管理,2003,20(5):27-31. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱智勋 熊鹰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 长沙市国土资源局,湖南,长沙,410001
2. 中国科学院长沙农业现代化研究所,湖南,长沙,410125 |
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| 摘 要： | 从湖南省近50年长序列耕地统计以及相关社会经济资料，分析其耕地数量变化趋势，运用主成分分析法对影响耕地变化的驱动因素进行探讨。研究表明：经济发展变化、社会系统压力和科技进步是影响湖南省耕地数量变化的主要驱动力，并在此基础上，通过建立多元回归模型，预测20lO年的耕地数量。
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| 关 键 词： | 湖南 耕地 动态变化 驱动因子 回归预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-4210(2003)05-27-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年4月17日 |
A Study of Farmland Resources Change and Driving Forces in Hunan Province in the Past 50 Years |
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| ZHU Zhi-xun,XIONG Ying.A Study of Farmland Resources Change and Driving Forces in Hunan Province in the Past 50 Years[J].Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources,2003,20(5):27-31. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Zhi-xun XIONG Ying |
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| Institution: | ZHU Zhi-xun1,XIONG Ying 2 |
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| Abstract: | Based on statistical and survey data from 1949 to 1999 at provincial and county levels, this article discusses the trend of cultivated land change and its driving forces in Hunan Province during the past 50 years. The study has shown that the main driving forces influencing the total amount of farmland in Hunan Province are change of economic development, pressure from social system, and advance of science and technology. By using regressive equation, the paper foresees the amount of cultivated land in Hunan Province. |
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| Keywords: | Hunan Province cultivated land dynamic change driving forces regressive prediction |
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