金融业扩张如何影响中国出口北大核心CSSCI

金融业扩张对中国各省份地区的出口活动及出口优势产生了怎样的影响效应,是迫切需要得到充分研究的重大问题。本文在利用2005年之后中国出台的一系列金融管制放松政策信息的基础上,构建了有效的工具变量,研究发现:金融业扩张与中国各省份地区出口活动之间呈显著的“倒U型”关系,由此揭示了中国背景下金融业扩张对地区出口扩张具有的非线性影响作用特征。进一步的机制检验发现,金融业扩张对中国各省份地区出口活动的“倒U型”关系影响效应,来源于金融业扩张对各地区相对成本优势的“倒U型”关系影响效应。其机制是,金融业扩张对工业部门的固定资产投资活动产生了突出的挤出效应,对制造业部门的工资水平产生了显著的“U型”关系影响效应,二者的叠加效应构成了金融业扩张对中国各省份地区相对成本优势的“倒U型”关系影响效应。本文为深入理解中国金融“脱实入虚”以及金融业过度扩张现象,及其对中国对外贸易所造成的负面效应和渠道机制,提供了依据。

How Does Financial Expansion Affect China’s Export?

The financial sector in China always expands irrationally and does business that deviates from their intended purpose.It is worth of study how its expansion would affect economic activity in export-oriented regions.Based on a series of financial deregulation policies after 2005,we constructed effective instrumental variables,and have found that the expansion of the financial sector causes a significant nonlinear inverted U-shaped impact on the export activities in various provinces and regions in China,which is derived from the inverted U-shaped relationship between financial expansion and the relative cost advantages of regions.It is because financial expansion not only produces a prominent crowding-out effect on fixed asset investment in the industrial sector,but also has a significant U-shaped relationship effect on the wage level.The combination of these two factors produces the inverted U-shaped relationship among the relative cost advantages of provinces and regions in China.This paper provides an in-depth understanding of the negative effects of irrational financial expansion and the mechanisms of how this expansion would affect China’s export.