中国和八国集团经济政策协调的经济基础分析

为研究中国和八国集团(G8)是否存在经济政策协调的经济基础,文章以国际经济政策协调理论为依据,从经济相互依存度考察政策协调的基础。通过选取衡量经济体相关性和趋同性的标准,对中国与八国集团中七个主要发达国家间的经济相互依存度进行比较。贸易的相关性和部分政策变量指标的趋同性,说明中国和七国已表现出一定的经济政策协调基础。但是,运用VAR模型对影响经济波动的深层因素——供给和需求冲击进行对称性分析,却显示中国与七国冲击对称性尚不显著,表明中国与七国相比参与政策协调的成本会比较大。所以,中国目前可不急于全面参与G8的政策协调,而应先利用当前的对话机制,加强同发达国家的经济联系,逐步探索未来协调的步骤和领域。

Analysis on Economic Basis of Economic Policy Coordination between China and G8

Based on the theory of international economic policy coordination,the paper studies the economic basis of policy coordination between China and Group of Eight in the perspective of economic dependence.It makes a comparison of economic dependence between China and seven main developed countries by selecting indexes of economic correlation and convergence.Trade correlation and convergence of some indexes related to policies indicate that a basis of economic policy coordination between China and the seven countries has been formed to a certain extent.However,through a VAR model the symmetry analysis on aggregate supply and demand shocks shows that there is little evidence of strong convergence and it means the cost of China's participation in policy coordination would be higher than the seven developed countries.So at present it is not the time to completely join in the policy coordination of G8 for China.China should make full use of the dialog mechanism,enhance the economic relations with developed countries and increasingly explore the steps and fields of policy coordination in the future.