人口,土地和农业生产力水平:二十世纪初无锡农村地区人口压力的测量

论文把"生存压力"和"劳动力剩余"作为测量"人口压力"的两个具体指标,在对20世纪初无锡农村地区人口,土地和农业生产力水平详细考察分析的基础上,对20世纪初无锡农村地区的人口压力进行了测量。论文从"人均土地粮食收获水平"和"剩余劳动力规模"两方面讨论了当时无锡农村经济所面临的资源困境,以及其有可能的发展出路。论文认为在当时那种沉重的人口压力下,提高农业生产力水平和发展工业和城市经济是实现农业经济增长和农村经济转型的关键。然而,就是在当时全国工业和城市经济最为发达的江南,其当时的工业和城市经济发展程度也远不足以吸收足够多的农村剩余劳动力,在资金和技术上对农业生产予以显著的支持,为农村经济发展带来本质性的变化。

Population,Land and Agriculture Productivity:Population Pressure in Rural Wuxi during the Early 20th Century

Was it possible for the Chinese rural economy of the late 19th and early 20th centuries to be successfully transformed? This paper presents a glimpse into this question through discussing the restrictions in labor employment and land productivity that Wuxi peasants faced during the early 20th century. The research provides estimates of grain harvest per capita and surplus labor size in rural Wuxi based on detailed analysis of the rich data provided by the Japanese South Manchuria Railway survey and the two surveys conducted by Chinese researchers in 1929 and 1957. The study concludes that given the restriction of land-population ratio and the restriction of the agricultural productivity of that time,the grain yield per capita in the majority of peasant families was lower than the minimum required for subsistence,and that the industrial development scale of the time could not absorb enough rural surplus labor,which is estimated at 40% of rural laborers. Under such circumstances,it is unlikely that the Wuxi rural economy of the time could have been successfully transformed.