城乡居民生活水平差距的变化——基于经济周期视角分析

为探究周期性波动因素如何影响中国城乡居民生活水平差距变化,本文对新凯恩斯模型进行以下拓展:城乡二元经济体系,城乡居民不同金融参与程度,及城乡间劳力迁移。基于1996—2012年季度数据,由贝斯估计得到的本文模型可以很好地匹配主要宏观变量的数据特性。本文研究得到各种外生冲击对城乡居民收入与消费周期性变动的动态影响及解释力大小;并探明城乡生活水平周期性差距在2002—2004年间扩大及2011年之后减缓的影响主因;同时也发现短期宏观政策对城乡生活水平周期性差距具有不对称影响。

Disparity between Urban and Rural Areas in China: A Business Cycle Perspective

We analyze what accounts for disparity between urban and rural areas in China from a business cycle perspective. A two sector, urban versus rural, DSGE model is developed and estimated using 1996-2012 data. Our model replicates the data well. We thus examine cyclical movements of income and consumption for both sectors that are due to various shocks to China's economy, and the extent caused by these shocks. We also investigate what have caused the widening disparity during 2002-2004 and the lessening disparity for years after 2011, respectively. Finally, the effects of stabilization policies on cyclical movements of disparity are found to be asymmetric.