| 汇率预期与贸易收支的实证研究——以我国家用视听类贸易为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 王刚贞,王光伟.汇率预期与贸易收支的实证研究——以我国家用视听类贸易为例[J].技术经济,2008,27(1):116-120. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王刚贞 王光伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 安徽财经大学,经济与金融学院,安徽,蚌埠,233041
2. 苏州大学,商学院,江苏,苏州,215000 |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽省高等学校省级自然基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 贸易与汇率关系理论难以对人民币升值背景下我国贸易顺差急剧扩大的现象给出令人信服的解释。本文利用凯恩斯主义的国际收支分析思路，结合我国人民币不能完全自由兑换和人民币汇率制度改革的现实，将汇率预期变量引入贸易收支模型，对主要家用视听产品的对外贸易进行实证分析，从一个新的视角研究预期人民币升值对我国贸易收支的影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 汇率预期 贸易收支 自由兑换 家用视听产品 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-980X(2008)01-0116-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年8月24日 |
Empirical Study on RMB Exchange Rate Anticipation and Trade Balance :A Case on Trade of Home Use Seeing and Hearing Product made in China |
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| Wang Gangzhen,Wang Guangwei.Empirical Study on RMB Exchange Rate Anticipation and Trade Balance :A Case on Trade of Home Use Seeing and Hearing Product made in China[J].Technology Economics,2008,27(1):116-120. |
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| Authors: | Wang Gangzhen Wang Guangwei |
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| Institution: | Wang Gangzhen ,Wang Guangwei (1. School of Economy and Finance,Anhui University of Finance and Economy,Bengbu Anhui 233041 ,China; 2. Business School,Soochow University,Suzhou Jiangsu 215000,China) |
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| Abstract: | The theory about trade and exchange rate is trouble to explain the phenomenon of trade surplus suddenly expanding on the background of RMB appreciation. This paper considers the facts of RMB exchange rate system reform and unconvertible freely currency and takes exchange rate variable into the model of trade balance by Keynes＇analysis way. It selects the trade data of major home use seeing and hearing product as study object and researches how exchange rate anticipation affects China＇s trade balance from a new perspective. |
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| Keywords: | exchange rate anticipation trade balance freely convertible currency home use seeing and hearing product |
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