农产品关税政策的内生性检验——基于国际数据的分析

关税等贸易干预政策普遍存在于各个国家的对外贸易政策之中,传统的自由贸易理论无法合理解释现实中的贸易扭曲现象,关税的决定问题得到广泛关注。关税政策具有内生性意味着关税由诸多因素影响而形成,是多方博弈的结果。这一判断需要通过实证研究得以验证,对农产品关税政策的内生性进行检验具有理论价值和实际意义。本研究基于国际视角对农产品关税政策的决定性问题进行实证研究,建立农产品进口和关税联立方程组,探讨各国(地区)农产品关税政策是否具有内生性并分析影响关税政策制定的主要因素。研究揭示出各国(地区)农产品关税内生性的一般规律,并为WTO谈判所处的困境提供了较为合理的解释,即一国在制定关税政策时会考虑诸多因素,多边谈判是各国利益角逐和博弈的过程。因此,应充分发挥WTO成员的利益协调机制,加强国家利益集团的作用。同时,充分估计到WTO农业谈判的艰巨性,不断加强我国参与农业谈判的能力建设。

An Endogenous Test on Agricultural Tariff Policy based on International Data

Tariffs widely exist in various national foreign trade policies.Traditional free trade theory cannot explain the reality of trade distortions,which leads to concerns of tariff policy making.The endogeneity of tariff policy means that tariff is the outcome of multiple games and it affected by many factors.The judgment needs verifying by empirical research,which is of theoretical value and practical significance.The study conducts empirical research on the decisive issue of agricultural tariff policy on international perspective,establishes agricultural import and tariff simultaneous equations,discusses whether agricultural tariff policy is endogenous in different countries and analyses the main factors that affect tariff policy making.The study reveals the general law of tariff endogeneity among countries and provides a reasonable explanation for WTO negotiation predicament,which is one country will take many factors into consideration in tariff policy making,the multilateral negotiation is the game process of all countries′ interests.Therefore,we should give full play to the interest coordination mechanism among WTO members and strengthen the role of national interests groups.Meanwhile,we should fully estimate the arduous WTO agricultural negotiation and improve our capacity building to participate in agricultural negotiation.