人民币对美元实际汇率变化:巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应还是一价定律偏离?

对人民币实际汇率进行分解研究发现,可贸易品与不可贸易品之间的相对价格变动对实际汇率波动的解释能力远小于可贸易品偏离一价定律因素,表明人民币对美元实际汇率变动主要受可贸易品价格波动的影响。进一步放松一价定律假设并在传统的巴萨效应检验模型中加入一价定律偏离因素后,进行回归分析发现,一价定律偏离因素是人民币实际汇率波动的主要影响因素,而巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应仅在1994年以后的样本区间才显著。本文的研究表明,相对一价定律偏离因素,巴萨效应对实际汇率波动的影响是次要的。

Real Exchange Rate Variation of RMB to US Dollar:Balassa-Samuelson Effect or Deviation to LOOP

This paper decomposes RMB real exchange rate,and finds that the explanation capacity of relative price fluctuation between tradable goods and non-tradable goods on the real exchange rate fluctuation is much smaller than the one price deviation law of tradable goods,this means that the RMB real exchange rate mainly influenced by the prices of tradable goods.After relaxes the hypothesis of one price law and adds it into the traditional Balassa-Samuelson effect testing equation,this paper finds that the deviation law of one price plays a major role in the fluctuation of RMB real exchange rate,while the Balassa-Samuelson effect is significant alone after 1994.The results show that the Balassa-Samuelson effect plays a relatively minor role in comparison to the contribution of the deviation law of one price.