商品进出口差额对云南省流动性供给影响的实证分析

外汇储备增加是中国近年流动性过剩的原因之一,通过对全国、东部地区、西部地区以及云南省商品进出口差额的分析,考察西部地区和云南省是否像全国一样,存在进出口顺差急剧增加导致外汇储备增加,进而推动流动性过剩的现象。分析结果表明,中国的流动性过剩具有明显的区域不平衡性,东部地区的流动性相对过剩,西部地区和云南省的流动性供应相对不足。云南省商品进出口差额对云南省的流动性供应影响甚微。

Empirical Analysis on the Influence of Commodity Import and Export Balance on Liquidity Supply in Yunnan

The increase of foreign exchange reserve is one of the reasons for excessive liquidity in China in recent years.Through the analysis on commodity important and export balance of the whole nation,the eastern regions and Yunnan province,the authors try to find out whether the same situation exists in western China and Yunnan province as the whole situation of China that the sharp increase of import and export surplus leads to excess liquidity.The results show that the excessive liquidity in China is significantly different in different regions.Liquidity in eastern China is comparatively excessive,but it is insufficient in western China and Yunnan province.Therefore,commodity import and export balance has little influence on liquidity supply in Yunnan.