Cohort and target age effects on subjective survival probabilities: Implications for models of the retirement phase |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Banking and Finance, Monash Business School, Monash University, 900 Dandenong Road, Caulfield East, Victoria 3145, Australia;2. Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash Business School, Monash University, Wellington Road, Clayton, Victoria 3800, Australia;3. Department of Accounting and Finance, Newcastle Business School, University of Newcastle, Australia;1. Department of Banking & Finance, Monash University, Clayton, Australia;2. Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia |
| |
| Abstract: | Subjective survival scaling factors are often estimated from one observation of life expectancy and treated as constant to any target age. Using new survey data on subjective survival probabilities, we estimate a model incorporating cohort- and target age-varying beliefs in scaling factors. Both cohort age and target age matter: respondents are pessimistic about overall life expectancy but optimistic about survival at advanced ages, and older respondents are more optimistic than younger. We propose a new theoretical model incorporating cohort- and target age-varying beliefs and illustrate their effects on the perceived value of annuities and on retirement phase consumption plans. |
| |
| Keywords: | Subjective life expectancy Unobservable heterogeneity Rational expectations Life cycle model |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
