中国城乡融合发展的经济增长效应分析

从城乡二元到城乡融合发展、促使城乡现代化同步发展是保持我国经济持续稳定增长的关键。根据对28个省份2003-2015年面板数据的计量检验,研究发现:中国城乡融合发展与经济增长存在双向、互动关系。在一个相对较长的时期内存在城乡融合发展与经济增长的双向因果关系,在短期内仅存在城乡融合发展到经济增长的单向因果关系;城乡空间融合发展、城乡经济融合发展、城乡基础设施融合发展、城乡公共服务融合发展和城乡生态环境融合发展均对中国经济增长产生正向促进作用。相比于城乡公共服务融合发展和城乡生态环境融合发展,城乡空间融合、城乡经济融合和城乡基础设施融合的促进效力更强;城乡融合发展对经济增长的影响存在空间异质性,相对于东部地区,中西部地区城乡生态环境融合发展对经济增长发挥着更大的促进作用。本文的政策含义是,经济增长并不能主动反哺于城乡融合发展,需要加强政府的引导,采取必要的以城乡融合发展为目标的制度安排,并注意分类指导,探索符合地方特色、行之有效的城乡融合发展模式。

An Analysis on the Economic Growth Effect of the Integration of Urban and Rural Development in China

From the urban-rural systemto the urban-rural integration development,to promote the simultaneous development of urban and rural modernization is the key to maintaining the sustained and stable growth of China’s economy as well as building a modern socialist country.Based on the measurement of panel data from 2003 to 2014 in 28 provinces,this paper finds:(1)There is a two-way and interactive relationship between urban-rural integration and economic growth in China. In a relatively long time period,there exists a two-way causal relationship between urban-rural integration and economic growth. However,there is only one-way causal relationshipin the short term.(2)The integration of urban-rural spatial development,economic development,infrastructure development,public service development and ecological environment all have a positive spillover effect on China’s economic growth.Compared with the development of urban-rural public service integration and eco-environment integration,the effects of urban-rural spatial integration,economic integration,and infrastructure integration are more effective.(3)The impact of urban-rural integration on economic growth has spatial heterogeneity.Compared with the eastern regions,the integration of urban-rural ecological environment in the central and western regions plays a greater role in promoting economic growth. Since the economy growth cannot automatically promote the integration of urban-rural areas,the government should pay attention to classification guidance and explore in line with local characteristics and effective urban-rural integration development model.