大豆目标价格补贴政策对农户生产行为的影响

粮食价格支持政策改革对保障国家粮食安全和维护农户基本收益具有重要意义。本文将大豆目标价格补贴政策引入农户生产决策行为模型,运用面板数据模型实证分析了大豆目标价格补贴政策对农户生产行为的影响,研究发现:第一,为了维护农户对政策感知的稳定性和建立农户政策信心,目标价格在年际之间不宜出现大幅度波动,同时实际补贴金额应能保障农户基本收益;第二,试点区大豆目标价格补贴政策未能提高农户种植积极性,主要原因在于大豆目标价格未能兼顾大豆和玉米的比较收益;第三,按种植面积补贴的方式不仅会降低高产区农户大豆种植积极性,且难以鼓励大豆种植向优势地区和规模化方式转移。

The Impactof Soybean Target Price Subsidy Policy on Farmers' Production Behavior

The reform of food price support policy is important to protect national food security and maintain farmers’ income.In this article,we introduce the soybean target price subsidy policy into the farmers’ production decision-making behavior model,and apply the panel data model to analyze the effect of the soybean target price subsidy on farmers’ production behavior. Firstly,to maintain the stability of farmers’ perception of the policy and build the policy confidence,the soybean target price should not be subject to large fluctuations between years,and the actual subsidy amount should maintain farmers’ basic income. Secondly,the soybean target price subsidy policy in the pilot area failed to increase farmers’ enthusiasm for planting,because the price could not maintain a balance between the soybean and the corn.Thirdly,the way of subsidizing based on the area could not only reduce the enthusiasm of soybean cultivation in high-producing areas,but also discourage the soybean planting from transferring to the advantageous region and matching scale production.