通货膨胀目标制宏观经济效应之“非对称性”的验证

已有的相关研究似乎显示通货膨胀目标制的宏观经济效应在工业国与新兴市场国之间存在着非对称性(即通胀目标制在新兴市场国表现出具有改善一国宏观经济的积极政策效果,但在工业国却缺乏足够证据来证实这一点)。本文以采用通胀目标制的所有国家为考察对象,选择通货膨胀率、GDP成长率及其各自的波动四变量作为刻画一国宏观经济运行态势的代表性指标,运用DID方法并结合Bootstrap检验对此进行验证。研究结果表明此非对称性确实存在,此结论对同为新兴经济体、并且货币政策面临变革和转型需要的我国具有一定的政策启示。

AsymmetryVerification on Macroeconomic Effects under Inflation Targeting

According to the existing relevant researches,the macroeconomic effect under inflation targeting seems to beasymmetricalbetween the industrialized countries and the emerging market countries.This paper studies all countries that have adopted inflation targeting by choosing four variables(inflation rate,GDP growth rate,and their volatilities) as a highly recapitulative indicator to summarize a country's macroeconomic performance, and meanwhile,using the DID method and Bootstrap methods to verify this asymmet...