| 基于时间序列模型在物流需求预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 田根平,曾应昆. 基于时间序列模型在物流需求预测中的应用[J]. 物流科技, 2007, 30(9): 96-99 |
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| 作者姓名： | 田根平 曾应昆 |
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| 作者单位： | 昆明理工大学,云南,昆明,650224 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用时间序列模型进行物流需求预测，用实例从数据平稳性的判断，平稳化、标准化，建模，经模型的识别、定价、参数估计和检验，到预测及误差和置信区间的计算，详细地说明了时间序列模型在物流需求预测中是如何应用的。结果表明该ARMA模型能够较好地拟合并可获得较高的中短期预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 物流 物流需求预测 时间序列模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-3100（2007）09-0096-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-01-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-01-11 |
Application of Logistics Requirement Forecast Based on Time-series |
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| TIAN Gen-ping,ZENG Ying-kun. Application of Logistics Requirement Forecast Based on Time-series[J]. Logistics Management, 2007, 30(9): 96-99 |
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| Authors: | TIAN Gen-ping ZENG Ying-kun |
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| Affiliation: | Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650224, China |
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| Abstract: | We carry on logistics demand forecast by taking time-series model and explain its applicationto logistics demand forecast by justment of data stationary,stead,standardization,modeling,discernment,making steps.parameter estimate and examination to predict,error and calculationof confidential interval.The reason shows that the ARMA model can fit and get better prediction accuracy in the medium and short-time term. |
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| Keywords: | logistics logistics requirement forecasting time-series model |
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