人民币汇率与近年来中国经常账户顺差

自20世纪90年代中期,中国经常账户收支平衡出现持续性顺差,尤其2001年以后出现顺差额大量增加。对经常账户构成项目的分解分析表明,大量顺差的出现与收益项目和单边转移项目的某些变动有关系,这些变动与人民币汇率预期因素之间存在一定关系。但对货物贸易总量及其分解部分的初步计量检验表明,人民币实际汇率指数在所考察期间内都未显示出相对于非汇率因素的突出作用。

RMB Exchange Rate and China's Current Account Balance

China's current account balance evolved into a pattern of persistent surplus since the mid-1990s,and the surplus amount of CA increased most sharply during the recent five or six years.Some recent changes in in- come and transfer flows in the current account are believed to be caused by the factor of exchange rate expecta- tions.Yet preliminary statistical examinations find that the real effective exchange rate of RMB has not shown a more significant role than other factors for the period under consideratio...