人口年龄结构与住宅价格调控

在人12老龄化背景下．当人12总量和年龄结构发生质的变化时，将对住宅价格产生深远影响。本文在人口学研究基础上。有效结合住宅销售价格指数．通过逐步回归的方法获得购房适龄人口数量与住宅价格的关系模型，同时创新性地纳入莱宾斯坦人口发展五阶段理论，通过Logarithmic曲线模型进行量化分析。结论显示，在假定条件下．随着未来适龄购房人口的减少，国内住房价格将在2018年出现拐点并逐步回落，并在2030年前后降至2000年水平（剔除通胀因素），之后将处于长期低迷状态。因此当前在遏制住房价格过快上涨的同时，应从更长远的视角构建调控思路。

Age Structure of Population and Control of Housing Price

Under the background of aging population,when the total population and age structure essentially change,it would have far-reaching effects on housing prices.Based on previous researches of demography,the paper effectively combines with residential sales price index,and builds a relation model between house purchasing age population and housing prices through stepwise regression.Meanwhile,it introduces Leibenstein's theory of population and economic growth,and conducts quantitative analysis with Logarithmic ...