Vergelijking van voorspelling en realisatie als bijdrage tot economisch bestuur*

A rather long time has elapsed since the predictions of the Central Planning Bureau were considered critically. It therefore seemed highly desirable to make a new study on forecasts and realization. The present article summarizes very briefly some conclusions from such a study. An important statistic in this context is the inequality coefficient, which presents a numerical measure of predictive accuracy. It is easily derived from the difference between forecast and realization and it may refer to one variable, to a group of variables or to each annual Central Economic Plan as a whole. It enables to draw valuable conclusions about the predictive work done by the Bureau in the past. Generally a satisfactory progress in the results is found, but on the other hand there remain some weak points which need improvement. Given the limited scope of this lecture reference may be made to the more elaborate study of the whole problem, published in Monograph No. 10 of the Central Planning Bureau, entitled: “Forecasts and realization. The forecasts by the Netherlands Central Planning Bureau, 1953–1963”.