城市体系与中国省域发展:结构主义视角的实证研究

基于结构主义的视角,利用中国23个主要省域的地级市2005—2011年常住人口数据,从地区生产总值、地区劳动生产率与地区人均生产总值三个维度来界定区域经济发展。研究发现,首位度越大、集中度越大、人口分布越不平等,越能够促进区域经济发展。并且,在区域经济增长模型中,已经出现"要素投入规模报酬递减"的现象,"工业化"倾向的产业结构对于中国区域经济发展具有负的显著作用。说明在促进区域发展的作用动力中,工业化的影响在逐渐减弱,城市化的作用慢慢凸显。同时,以"户籍人口占常住人口比重"的城市人口融合度对于区域经济发展具有负向影响。这表明更开放包容的城市人口政策,不仅有助于实现社会稳定和社会公平,最终也会促进区域经济发展。

City System and Regional Development in China: Based on The Prospective of Structuralism

Based on the perspective of structuralism, this paper defines regional economic development from three dimensions:regional gross domestic product, regional labor productivity and regional per capita gross domestic product, using the data of permanent resident population of prefecture-level cities in 23 major provinces and regions of China from 2005 to 2011. It is found that the greater the primacy, the greater the concentration and the unequal distribution of population, the more can promote regional economic development. Moreover, in the regional economic growth model, the phenomenon of "diminishing returns to scale of factor input" has appeared, and the industrial structure of "industrialization" tendency has a negative and significant effect on China's regional economic development. It shows that in the driving force of promoting regional development, the impact of industrialization is gradually weakening, and the role of urbanization is gradually highlighted. At the same time, the degree of urban population integration with "the proportion of registered population to permanent population" has a negative impact on regional economic development. This shows that a more open and inclusive urban population policy will not only help to achieve social stability and social equity, but also ultimately promote regional economic development.