基础养老保险缴费率膨胀系数研究*

围绕国家提出降低养老保险缴费率的宗旨，本文研究适度降低基础养老保险缴费率的路径，提出养老保险缴费率膨胀系数概念和定量研究数理模型。本文提出，社会保障体制转轨的“成本叠加”、全社会代际交叠的“有限责任”、个人生命周期的“不可预期”是导致养老保险缴费率膨胀的主要原因和内在规律。定量研究发现，现存养老保险缴费率膨胀系数为944%，其中覆盖面膨胀系数为559%，遵缴率膨胀系数为369%，提前退休膨胀系数为016%。纵向回归研究发现，覆盖面的膨胀系数弹性为-015，遵缴率的膨胀系数弹性为-02，提前退休的膨胀系数弹性为0938。在此基础上，本文提出了相关建议。 \

A STUDY OF EXPANSION COEFFICIENT OF ENDOWMENT INSURANCE PAYMENT RATE

In order to reduce the endowment insurance payment rate and moderately reduce the urban employee basic pension payment rate, this paper put forward the concept of endowment insurance payment rate expansion coefficient and set up quantitative mathematical model. This paper concluded the superposition cost of social security system in transition, the limited liability of intergenerational overlapping in the whole society and the unpredictable of personal life cycle were the main reasons and internal rules of endowment insurance payment rates expansion. Quantitative study found that the current expansion coefficient of endowment insurance payment rate was 944% and the coverage expansion coefficient was 559%, the rate of payment according to system requirements expansion coefficient was 369% and the early retirement expansion coefficient was 016%. Longitudinal regression analysis showed that the coverage expansion coefficient elasticity was -015, the rate of payment according to system requirements expansion coefficient elasticity was -02, the early retirement expansion coefficient elasticity was 0938. Some policy suggestions were provided.