湖北省耕地数量变化及驱动因子分析

利用1949—2000年的统计和普查数据，对湖北省近51年来耕地数量变化及区域差异情况进行了分析，在此基础上探讨了影响耕地动态变化的驱动因子。结果表明：湖北省近51年来耕地数量总体上呈逐年下降的趋势，耕地变化区域差异明显。农业结构调整、非农建设、灾害毁损和开荒等因素是引起耕地变化的直接驱动因子；而人口变化、技术进步、比较收益和政治经济政策等因素是引起耕地变化的间接驱动因子，它们通过直接驱动因子产生作用。

An Analysis of Dynamic Change and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land in Hubei Province

According to the statistical and survey data form 1949 to 2000,the analysis is made about the quantitative change and the regional difference of the arable land in Hubei province during the last 50 years,on the basis of which the major driving forces that influence the changes of cultivated land are further discussed.The results indicate that the general trend of the cultivated land in Hubei province is downwards and the regional differences of cultivated land are very evident. Agricultural restructuring,non-agricultural construction, disastrous damage and land reclamation are the direct driving factors that caused the changes and the population growth,advanced technology, comparative profit and political and economic policies are the indirect driving factors which take effect on the cultivated land by the direct ones.