跨境资本流动与宏观周期研究述评

实际经济周期理论(RBC)无法解释国内偏好(Home Bias)和资产异质性(Idiosyncratic Asset)问题,因而无法全面阐释金融危机时期国际资本流动。通过大量文献将投资组合理论引入开放动态随机一般均衡(ODSGE)模型较好地解决了以上问题。与此同时,对国际资本流动的研究从一阶矩扩展到二阶矩,即由单独关注收益因素到关注收益因素并关注风险因素,构建了研究国际资本流动与经济周期波动一般性分析框架。这一新进展对于研究中国实施资本管制和构建国际资本流动管理体系具有较强的理论和现实意义。文章对以上研究成果进行了梳理,重点梳理了跨境资本流动与金融危机、周期波动的相关研究并对之进行述评。

Analysis and Review on Cross-border Capital Flow and Macro-cycle

Real Business Cycle（RBC）theory can not demonstrate home bias and idiosyncratic assets, it also can not fully interpretate the inernational capital flow especially during the financial crisis episode. A number of literatures emerging resolve the two above- mentioned issues in appropriate approach through introducing equity portfolio theory to open dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （ODSGE）. What＇s more, international capital flow literatures have expanded from the zero or first order to second order which means researchers have shifted from only focusing on expected return factors to emphasizing not ony return but also risk factors. Therefore, they have built a general analysis framework on international capital flow and business cycle. This new progress has significant theoretical and realistic importance for enforcing capital control and constructing international capital mangement system for emerging economies. This paper reviews those research and literatures, stressfully reviews the literatures on cross-border capital flow financial crsis and business cycle fluctuations and makes remarks on them at last.