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INFLATION STABILIZATION AND NOMINAL ANCHORS
Authors:GUILLERMO A CALVO  CARLOS A VÉGH
Institution:*Senior Advisor and Economist, respectively, Research Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF). This is a revised version of a paper presented at the Western Economic Association International 67th Annual Conference, San Francisco, Calif., July 9–13, 1992, in a session organized by John Welch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The authors are grateful to Jose Fajgenbaum, Carlos Medeiros, Gerald O'Driscoll, Jr., Ratna Sahay, Pierre Siklos, Peter Wickham, conference participants, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. A previous version of this paper was issued as IMF working paper PPAA 92/4. Besides being published here, the paper is scheduled to appear in late Spring 1994 in an IMF conference volume Exchange Rate Policy: Strategic Choices. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF.
Abstract:This paper analyzes the choice of a nominal anchor in disinflation programs in chronic inflation countries. Both theory and evidence suggest several conclusions. (i) The recessionary effects associated with disinflation appear in the early stages of money-based programs but only in the late stages of exchange rate-based programs. (ii) Lack of credibility is more disruptive under fixed exchange rates than under floating exchange rates. (iii) Attempting to pursue a disinflationary policy while maintaining a given level of the real exchange rate is likely to be self-defeating. (iv) A high degree of currency substitution favors the exchange rate as the nominal anchor.
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