非寿险承保风险引发系统性风险的复杂网络分析

本文基于我国财险业2009～2018年数据,用复杂网络理论模型构建了财险业承保业务网络,并模拟了承保风险传染过程,分析了承保风险对财险业系统性风险的影响轨迹及程度.研究发现,我国财险业承保业务网络的联系越来越密切,承保风险的增加会引发传染风险,进而导致爆发系统性风险.但当前我国财险业整体稳定,只有发生1600亿元及以上...

The Complex Network Analysis of Insurance Systemic Risk Caused by Underwriting Risk of Nonlife Insurance

Based on the real business data of China′s nonlife insurance industry from 2009 to 2018,an underwriting business network of nonlife insurance industry was constructed by using the complex network theory and model, the processes of contagion from underwriting risks to systematic risk were simulated, and the contagion track and contagion degree of underwriting risks on the systemic risks of the nonlife insurance industry were analyzed.The research results show that, the connection among the underwriting business network in China′s property insurance industry is getting closer and closer.As a result, the increase in the underwriting risk can give rise to the contagion risk, and may even trigger off the outbreak of the systematic risk.But at the present, the nonlife insurance in China as a whole is running stably.Certain insurance companies may fall into crisis only when there is a big initial loss of at least 160 billion RMB,and only when the initial loss is more than 850 billion RMB,would some insurance companies get into crisis because of the contagion risk.Losses fall several-fold during the contagion process of the underwriting risk.Insurance companies mainly suffer relatively large losses from the underwriting risk and the first two rounds of contagion, and the possibility of getting into crisis in the subsequent rounds of contagion is very low.Therefore, it is necessary to prevent catastrophe risk, supervise key entities, explore the catastrophe transfer mechanism and establish the underwriting risk early warning mechanism.